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I just got back from Peoria, AZ, where I gave a speech about risk from the perspective of a former professional gambler. The takeaways are:
Enjoy, and let me know if you’d like to hire me to speak at your sweet event:
Tynan’s Speech: Not Taking Risks is Risky from Tynan on Vimeo.
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One thing about taking risks or putting an effort in that has bit me in the ass a few times, just because something is statistically a given, doesn’t mean you can’t take it seriously. If you don’t your odds of success will go way way down. Just because skydiving is statistically safe, it doesn’t mean you can skimp on your safety double-checking.
I really liked the speech too, It would be really good in a podcast format.
Just want to say, I this is possibly the best post i have read so far on Tynan.net and I think I have read them all, or close to it.
This is really incredible Tynan. Inspiring and well delivered, especially for the audience. My only worries are that you turned a room of ~400 people into professional school-bus-driving-gamblers. Hahah.
Really though, very well done.
That was like Tynan: The Movie! You talked about pick-up, and the bus, and Life Nomadic, and of course, being a professional gambler. I loved your speech!
Well executed. I could tell you put some careful thought/execution into it.
Great job Ty. You’re a natural investment professional. You’ve described in your speech the fundamentals of modern portfolio theory, which is based on the presumption that people choose portfolios of investments but face a tradeoff between return and risk (uncertainty in returns). There are lots of portfolio choices in the world; there are dumb risks to take (low return and high risk portfolios), and there are safe risks to take which yield very low returns (e.g. risk free treasury bills). But the BEST thing to do is to take SMART risks, i.e. pick the portfolio with the highest return per unit of risk (aka sharpe ratio), and this is precisely the bliss point that makes one best off.
Anyway… I should invite you to Stanford to give a talk sometime.
@Charlie Thanks… always good to hear from people who actually know what they’re doing that I’m on the right track :). Speaking at Stanford some time would be awesome.
Just curious, what audience were you speaking to?
Wow, you were in Peoria, AZ? Wish you had announced it here, definitely would have driven to come see you.
As a poker player who plays for Real Money online, all of this is spot-on advice (EV+ decisions, the coinflip exercise, etc)
Hope to see you speak more, you lead a truly remarkable life sir!
Awesome talk man! Really enjoyed it.
Loved this video… loved the idea of asking 4 questions for each risk.
http://www.boingboing.net/2010/01/31/san-franciscos-secre.html
i thought you might like this map of some sf places.
you should also try to meet starchild, visit city lights bookstore,and have lunch with my brother.
alison at the libertarian party of indiana is looking for a speaker – she doesn’t know yet that you are the speaker she should get. thanks for sample chapters of your books.
I reluctantly watched this, thinking I already knew a lot about risk and thinking logically. However, this was AMAZING!!! Really helped me see some stuff I didn’t see before. Your points about making a habit out of risks, always doing the scarier option, and how hard decisions aren’t really hard really struck a cord.
Fantastic speech. I would love to hear your insights and how you prepared for giving it.
btw, I’ve realize that we are very much alike, yet, very different people. We just use and believe the same process’. Incidentally, I have always strongly taught that our GUT is always always right. That feeling is your internal compass telling you where to go, which few listen to and act on.
Great post man. It’s similar to ‘job security’ being a contradiction, and the most secure thing you can do is to become an entrepreneur.
Hey, Tynan. I enjoyed the video. I am curious about something: have you read “blink” by Malcolm Gladwell? It’s a book primarily about instinct, subconscious thought and snap decisions (hence the title). I mention it because of how vehemently you decry the gut in your video.
Gladwell’s point, as I take it, is not to contradict this (he looks at things fairly by examining specific cases of the gut being wrong, as well as being right), and he posits a proper understanding of how one’s mind works to understand what decisions are best left to intuition, and what decisions are too complex or out of one’s experience, and need to have logic applied to them.
Because your speech focuses on the latter type of decision, I don’t think Gladwell contradicts you. Anyway: it is a book well worth reading, as are his other books (“Outliers” is the other particularly interesting one of the collection).
did you always use martingale or did you use something like the d’alembert progression
martingales kind of intense
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Jake
Great job, man! I didn’t plan to watch it all in one sitting, but it kept me hooked.
Keep being awesome!